The Rollercoaster Bounces Again!

You may recall that in the last photo I posted we were back to snow cover here, what seemed like a normal February, at least for a few days.  Well it hasn't stayed that way.

Here's where we were on Feb. 19th, looking like a normal winter's day.

Then the temperatures rose (to 11°C) and it started to melt.

And kept melting until by Feb. 28th in the morning there was virtually no snow left.  This is NOT like a typical February day!

Then another snowstorm blew through and temperatures plunged.

And now we're back to a white landscape again.

For a short while our snowstick has a cap of white (yesterday), but it's now 9°C in bright sun, and just going higher, possibly to 17°C on Monday!  And daytime highs will be well above freezing for the forseeable future.

So is this scary or not?  From what I've read this crazy winter is because we're under a strong El Nino pattern currently, though it will be changing to a La Nina pattern by summer.  The strength of this pattern is scary in the short run for farmers and for our creeks and rivers.  Without winter snow accumulation, soil moisture will be low, creeks may dry up, and eventually crop yields may be less. In some areas the forest fire season will be worse.

But it's also scary in the long run as an indicator of climate change.  One year does not climate change make by itself, but as year after year gets warmer, that's climate change.  Many indications are that it's happening faster than anyone expected.  Politicians may argue as to whether it's caused by human activity or natural cycles, but it's near-impossible to argue it's not happening.

There's lots of scientific theory behind all this, all related to ocean currents and water temperatures in the Pacific.  El Nino brings warmer waters to the surface, and warmer, drier winters to the northern U.S. and to Canada.  La Nina brings colder water to the surface, and in turn colder, wetter winters.  Interestingly Spanish fishermen noticed this pattern in the Pacific 400 years ago and named it El Nino or Little boy, and La Nina or Little Girl.

If you want a good but short explanation, read the National Ocean Service article on "What are El Nino and La Nina"?.