The Alpena-Amberley Ridge

At this point in understanding ancient Great lakes history, we will focus on the Alpena-Amberly Ridge under the middle of Lake Huron.  If you don't know what this is, you'd better go back and read the previous post.

About 20 years ago, Dr. John O'Shea, an archeologist at the University of Michigan, was looking at this bathymetric map of Lake Huron, and spotted that shallower ridge running from southeast to northwest through the lake, here highlighted by black dashed lines.  It came to be known as the Alpena-Amberly Ridge, for the names of the nearest towns on each end, and it has been a focus of underwater archeology ever since.

There have been lots of advances in underwater exploration in recent years, usually from trying to find shipwrecks, so there are good tools for underwater archeology.  O'Shea took advantage of these and initially used side-scan sonar, finding evidence of rock piles that appeared human-made.  

Caribou are known to travel in regular routes, based on patterns in today's Arctic.  There indigenous hunters build small rock cairns creating 'drive lanes', making hunting more successful.  We once crossed one of these hunting spots, while paddling down the Burnside River in the Arctic.  A pile of antlers bore witness to the successful hunt.

Next they used a remotely operated vehicle which they named 'Jake', as well as actual divers to assess the appearance of this ridge.  The structures they found looked like drive lanes which could have been used to funnel the animals by creating bottlenecks where Indigenous hunters would be more successful.  They also found hunting blinds and broken arrowheads.

This description also immediately reminded me of Head-Smashed-In Buffalo Jump in southern Alberta, a site we visited on our first big trip west with our kids in 1986.  People visiting this site are of course entranced by the cliff the buffalo jumped over, and the kill site below.  Even archeologists focus on the kill site, because that's where you find ancient artifacts.  

But the real action took place above the cliff.  Here men of the tribe placed rock cairns built up with sticks and brush to create long drive lanes that the buffalo followed.  The real work was in finding a convenient herd and gradually working them toward these drive lanes.  (It was a lazy young brave who hid below the cliff rather than join the runners who had his head smashed in).

In this, another version of a bathymetric map of Lake Huron, you are looking at the Lake Stanley phase of the Great Lakes, approximately 7000 - 9000 years ago, when the Lake Huron basin was divided in two, and water levels were much lower than today.  The Alpena-Amberley Ridge stands out clearly.

The research led by underwater archeologist Dr. O'Shea has discovered an ancient caribou route across this dry ridge.  And further, it has documented stone structures built by indigenous hunters at narrow points of the ridge and what appear to be hunting blinds.

The research was not over yet though.  By gathering sediment and analyzing it they were able to reconstruct the ancient landscape, or what they labelled the paleo environment.  That's the next story.

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Caribou Hunting in the Great Lakes?

We attended a fascinating lecture at our regional museum last week, and it's got me interested in ancient Great Lakes history.  So I'm doing a little research of my own and I'm gonna share it with you over a few posts while we wait for the endless cold temperatures of early April to go up!

Leonore Keeshig, of the Saugeen Ojibway First Nation, spoke on indigenous legends that tell the story of retreating glaciers and a time when the annual caribou hunt was important, in a landscape that would be described as arctic, about 9000 years ago.  It was a landscape that would befie your belief today as you sail over the waters of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay.

So bear with me while I give you some background and then I'll try to explain the essence of her message.  Otherwise you can just skip this post and wait for the next one.  I hope you can get used to these maps.  They're kind of skewed, with north in the upper right corner but I'll explain them.

The upper left corner of this widely published diagram, shows the glaciation of the Great lakes, when lobes of the continental ice sheet extended down into Lake Michigan and Lake Huron.  Two lakes of meltwater sat in the south end of today's Lake Michigan and Lake Erie, labelled by scientists as Lake Chicago and Lake Maumee.  Drainage was to the southwest, through Saginaw Bay and Chicago to the Mississippi.

In the upper right diagram, the glacier has retreated north, allowing for a huge glacial lake to form, encompassing both today's Lake Michigan and Lake Huron, and the tip of Georgian Bay, labelled glacial Lake Algonquin.  It still drained to the southwest, as drainage north or east was blocked by the ice.  The shoreline of that lake can still be traced, considerably higher than the lakes today, including right here in Meaford.

The lower left diagram is the interesting one.  As the ice retreated north the lakes reached a point where they could drain to the northeast, out through today's French River and North Bay, reversing the drainage pattern completely.  This left the glacial lakes at a much lower level than today's lakes.  A smaller lake occupied Lake Michigan, known as Lake Chippewa, and similarly a smaller lake occupied Lake Huron, known as Lake Stanley.

It is at this stage, somewhere between 7000 and 9000 years ago, that we find tantalizing evidence of indigenous life on dry land that is today submerged.

Let me first finish describing the diagram above.  In the lower right corner we have a map showing approximately today's Great Lakes.  The water level was a little higher, so the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay/Lake Michigan basin was inter-linked and known as Lake Nipissing; Lake Stanley has disappeared, but there is still drainage to the northeast, through North Bay.  We can find clear evidence of this old shoreline right here in Meaford; indeed, it's just two blocks from my house.

Let's take a closer look at that Lake Stanley and the lowest water levels of the Great lakes basin.

I had always assumed that the glacial lake levels were much higher than today's lake levels, and they gradually fell, from glacial Lake Algonquin to Lake Nipissing to today's lakes.  But it's not actually that simple.  Glacial lake levels actually fell to a very low level, as in Lake Stanley, and then rose again to the Lake Nipissing level, and then fell again to today's lake levels.  So we have a gigantic up and down pattern going on.

When drainage shifted to the northeast, the lowest levels of the lakes were reached, with rivers connecting Lake Chippewa, Lake Stanley, Georgian Bay and a small corner of what became Lake Superior.  The green areas here were dry land, extending the shoreline far out from today's pattern. 

Take a look at how the Lake Stanley basin was divided in two.  Turns out that band of green running through the middle of the lake was dry land too, an underwater ridge known today as the Amberly to Alpena Ridge.  That's where we'll pick up next post; hope you're still with me!

The Snow Cycle Continues!

 Yes, it is still March today as I write this, and March never knows whether it's ready for spring or still has a bit of winter left to visit.  And so we had yet another gentle snowfall overnight last week, continuing what seems like a never-ending cycle.

It was only a couple of inches, but it turned the world briefly white again.

Our crane/snowstick got to do its work for a change.

Remember those white Hellebore; they got another dose of cold therapy.

And the Daffodil shoots out front didn't even seem to notice!

But I'm happy to report that things are now back to normal, and the only bit of snow left is down in the lower left corner, in the shade of the house.

And the Hellebore survived again, raising their blooms to a rainy late March day.  The dangerous ice storm the forecast warned us of ominously hasn't materialized yet.  But we did lose power at an awkward stage as they were attempting to get me out of bed.

Cows and Houses

 After we left Sauble Beach, we had a lazy drive through the country, stopping at this large flooded pond in a farm field.  Mrs. F.G. seems to be enchanted with cows, so every time we passed some she pulled over to let me take pictures. 

This flooded pond was at quite a distance, too far to tell if any of these birds were anything but Canada Geese., but there were lots of them!

Cows are always curious, ready to stop and look at you, probably wondering if you've brought any feed.

This one had a memorable face!

Several miles later and we came upon a group of Charolais gathered close together.  I expect most cattle outside these days are just getting some fresh air; they're certainly not grazing.  You have to look twice at this group to count all six of them!

And then we were driving through Kilsyth, the little village where my grandfather ran the general store for several decades.  My grandparents, along with three great aunts, still lived in the village when I knew them.  Most people I speak to have never heard of it!  But now progress has come to the place, in the form of large prestigious homes in a small block on the corner of town.  Feels like a culture clash to me!

Sauble Beach

Last Sunday afternoon we decided to go for another drive, and this time we ended up at Sauble Beach.  This is one of Ontario's most beautiful beaches, an 11 kilometre stretch of sand on Lake Huron, almost directly to the west of us.  It's the second longest beach in Ontario, after Wasaga Beach, directly to the east of us.

We actually rented a cottage here about 40 years ago.  It was a tiny little building, but it was right on the water.  However, we've never been back since, so we wondered what it would be like.    

We started out going west on this drive, aiming for straight through Owen Sound.  This is the valley of Keefer Creek. 

Then it was down over the cliff of the Niagara Escarpment, and into the valley of Owen Sound.

After a stop at Tim's to pick up hot chocolate, we eventually ended up at the north end of the  beach.  As you can see, this is one of the access points, and that sign on the right is emblematic of the efforts they're put into policing the beach - no dogs, no fires, no littering, and above all, no vehicles.  When we visited cars drove up and down on the beach and parked there - what a change!

The result is that dunes have built up substantially; in fact you hardly ever get a glimpse of the lake, even though we were driving down Lakeshore Blvd. the road closest to the lake.

This is the main public access point, with washrooms.  As you can see, this part of the beach is owned by the Saugeen First Nation.  There has been a long extended lawsuit here, finally settled in favour of the first nation.

Going out on the ice is one of the biggest dangers on this beach.

For the most part our drive just extended past dune after dune; you'd never know Lake Huron was out there!

Finally, at a low point between the dunes, we did see the lake, and two people, apparently trying to fly a kite.  And that was the end of our drive down Sauble Beach.  We have little inclination to return.

And Out the Front Door...

 The biggest change occurred outside the front window, for that's where the snow was originally piled the highest.  And that's where the most flower shoots poked up, primarily Daffodils.  

The kidney shape of our front garden, not quite free of snow .

The remnant of that huge pile of snow beside the driveway, still covering half the garden.

You have to take a close look to see the Daffodil shoots.

From another angle, once I was outside, the snow is almost gone.  It disappeared a little more every day.

Not much left.

Oh, but I forgot, it's March!

Our own little flag.

And two neighbours' flags.  As  you've probably heard, Canada is now into a national election campaign.   It's an important election for Canadians, given DT's assault on our country.  I'll likely be unable to stop my self from commenting!

It is March After All!

 You may remember the gigantic piles of snow we enjoyed this winter.  I can't quite believe it, but they actually disappeared pretty quickly, thanks to 4 or 5 warm days and steady breezes that just soaked the snow up into the atmosphere.  The river was flowing full, but not  even any significant flooding that I heard of.

This is the huge pile of snow that was left here on Mar. 11th, just less that two weeks ago.

 The snow melted fast over just 3 or 4 days, leaving the view out back mostly free of snow.

And it just kept on melting.

Immediately after the snow disappeared, the first Hellebore were in bloom.  You'd almost think they were blooming under the snow and just waiting!

But of course, as my title alludes, this is March in southern Ontario!  We've all been there before.

And then the next day the cycles repeated itself, though it's still a surprise every time it happens!

Again the Hellebore were ready and waiting!  So it will continue!

DT's Endgame

Since Trump has been throwing tariffs and the threat of tariffs toward Canada, I, like many Canadians, have been both worried and puzzled.  Why is he picking on Canada, one of America's best long term allies?  Why does Canada rank with Mexico, which has genuine drug and immigration problems at the southern U.S. border, and China, which more than any other country in the world, has taken over the U.S. consumer market?  

And why the continuing spew of insults (or are they threats?) about Canada becoming the 51st state?

It seems to me that Trump has something personal against Canada.  Maybe as Maebeme in her comments two posts ago suggested, he wants our resources, water, lumber and oil.  I still can't say what is going on in Trump's brain about the long run for Canada.

But in a more general sense, we do now have some ideas.

Based on negotiations in Washington last week, Canadian officials came away with the understanding that DT plans three approaches to reducing the U.S. global international trade deficit of $1.8 trillion.  First is a budget with billions in program and tax cuts, the second is the ruthless reduction in agency staffing that Musk is over-seeing, and the third is tariffs.   

In Trump's mind, in spite of the turmoil that they are creating for the American stock market, tariffs will bring in enormous amounts of money to the U.S., while encouraging manufacturing to return to the U.S.   I'm not sure either of these are true, but on Apr. 2nd, Trump will announce tariffs of various levels on countries around the world.  At least Canada will no longer feel picked on!

But what does he have in mind for Canada?  Like many Canadians, I suspect he really is after our natural resources.  Though he's constantly saying the U.S. doesn't need our oil, gas, or lumber, he hasn't said much about our water or those critical minerals.  Others have suggested that what he really wants is an integrated North American economy, which would be a big step toward annexation.

But I think it may be even more than that, and simpler at the same time.  I suspect that Trump has a big map of North America pinned to his bedroom wall and he looks at that map and thinks wouldn't it be a great legacy to create one huge country, including both Greenland and Canada?

I think we're going to see a lot of nonsense in the next four years!

We will shortly return to regular programming.

Understanding Canada's Dairy Tariffs

One of the most outlandish figures DT has shot toward Canada is referring to our exceedingly high dairy tariffs.  Unfortunately this is one of those stories where the part of the story not told is the interesting part.  If DT isn't outright lying, at least he's being dishonest and misleading. 

It all goes back to the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, a trade agreement negotiated by DT during his first term in office and described by him as 'the best trade deal ever made'.  Under that agreement, a compromise was reached on one of the many topics covered, dairy products.  Canada and the U.S. operate very different regulations governing dairy production, so a new idea was introduced, tariffs that do not apply below a certain level, with higher tariffs that apply once that level is reached.

Let me explain.

Canadian dairy production operates under a supply management system, wherein farmers need to own a quota for selling a certain amount of milk and other dairy products.  Quotas are allocated to provinces, designed to match dairy production to public dairy consumption.  Prices go up slightly for everyone, but it protects our small dairy industry.  There's a quota but also a guaranteed price, and tariffs control foreign competition.  Trump has always wanted access to the Canadian dairy market.

The American dairy industry is less fettered by regulation, and farms are on average considerably larger.  This allows higher production, but milk gets over-produced, and prices drop, leaving farmers scrambling for government subsidies.  There are no subsidies in Canada, just a guaranteed price.  But with high production you can easily understand that the American dairy industry wants access to Canadian consumers.  

So a compromise was reached in CUSMA, allowing U.S. access to a certain level of the Canadian market.  There are different rules for different products (primarily milk and cheese), but on average I understand the U.S. has access to about 16% of the Canadian market..  Below that level there is only a minimal tariff (7.5%) or no tariff at all.  That level has never been reached so no high tariffs have ever been charged.

Only if that level were ever to be reached would the higher tariffs Trump has moaned about kick in.  They never have, in spite of the fact that Canada imports over a billion dollars of American dairy products while the U.S. imports something over $300 million worth of Canadian dairy products.

There are of course other differences between Canadian and American dairy production.  Perhaps the most notable is the use of growth hormones in the U.S. which are illegal in Canada.  The FDA says these are safe for humans, but Canada says they can impact the cow's health.  The result is that many Canadians simply don't want to drink American milk.

And I should point out that American dairy farmers have indicated they would love to have a system like Canada's supply management.

So the story of Canada's 250% dairy tariffs is misleading at the least, but of course Americans who don't understand that Trump signed the agreement that put those tariffs in writing, may see that high figure as Canada 'ripping off' the U,S.  In this as in some of Trump's other pronouncements, the part of the story not told is the interesting part.

Help Me Understand How Canada is "Ripping Off" the U.S.

I'm writing this mainly to push myself to understand the topic of trade balances, and in a plea for help.  If you have any comments at all, good or bad, please let me know.

DT has described international trade in one phrase, "They're ripping us off".  And he's applied it to many countries, not just Canada.  Of course this infuriates me, so I've been trying to understand it.  DT goes beyond that and says Canada wouldn't survive as a country without the big subsidy the U.S. provides, so we might as well become the 51st state!  This infuriates me even more!!   Unfortunately I'm not an economist, so understanding this is an uphill battle for me!

The most recent figures I could find are for the first 3/4 of 2024.  In that period the U.S. imported about $420 billion from Canada and Canada imported about $350 billion worth of products from the U.S.  The difference in that trade balance is widely referred to in negative and positive terms.

If Canada exports more than it imports from the U.S. (as we do) that means we have a trade surplus with the U.S. and they have a trade deficit with us.  "Ripping us off" in Trump's terms, seems to mean that we're selling more to you than we're buying from you.  Trump would like every country in the world to buy more from the U.S. than it sells to the U.S.  A negative trade balance = 'ripping us off'.

The simplest answer to this is for the U.S. to simply stop buying our stuff!  Trump himself has said that the U.S. doesn't need our oil, gas or hydro power, our lumber or our autos.  So why don't you just stop buying them?  For oil, the answer is that it would take a long time to change the U.S. refining capacity, even if that was the economically sensible thing to do, which it isn't.

Canadian crude oil, which is really a bitumen product, requires a different refining process, and many of the refineries in the Midwest have been built to process that 'heavy' crude.  You can't just switch overnight!  Reducing Canadian imports would require re-tooling the U.S. refining capacity, especially in the Midwest, an enormous financial investment.

In spite of that, if we just remove oil and gas from the trade balance, as noted above, the situation would be reversed, and the U.S. would have a trade surplus with Canada, keeping DT happy.  Last year the U.S. imported $170 billion worth of Canadian oil and gas.  If that is set aside for a moment, the U.S. has a large trade surplus with Canada, of about $100 billion.

So as DT has suggested, why doesn't the U.S. just stop buying our oil and gas, though all the Midwest drivers might be a little frustrated, not being able to buy gas for their pickups!

The same can be said about autos, where the trade is actually fairly well balanced at the moment.  But if DT wants to stop Canadian imports, which account for about 8 or 9% of American consumption, it would require construction of about 6 entire new assembly plants, a task which would take more than a few years.  DT can rant and rave, but industrial-level change unfolds slowly.

And in what sense is the U.S. trade surplus a 'subsidy'?  It simply reflects your purchase of our products.  That's not the U.S. subsidizing Canada!  Canada is not 'ripping off' the United States simply by selling you things.

Another accusation DT has made is that Canada is one of the "worst tariffing" nations on the planet.  In fact, the most recent data I've seen shows that Canada ranks below the U.S., and both are quite near the bottom of the scale.  DT seems to have a talent for exaggerations intending to stir up trouble rather than any interest in facts!

But I've got a further question.  Why aren't trade balances expressed in per-capita terms, that is, why don't they take into account different populations.  The simplest statement of this problem is that we don't buy enough from you to offset the products you need from us.  But how can a country with about 1/8 the population ever expect to buy an equal amount to balance your imports?  It makes no sense.

I look forward to your comments.

Reference:  I've relied heavily on a report by TD Economics entitled 'Setting the Record Straight on Canada-U.S. Trade'

It's Melting Fast Now!

 I don't think I've ever seen snow disappear so fast as overnight last night.  The temperature is up around 15°C and it's been a windy two days.  A lot of snow is vanishing through sublimation; the wind just sucks the moisture out of the snowbanks.  As commenter mentioned yesterday, fog appears over the fields as evidence of the water vapour being sucked out of the snow.  But there's so much melting going on that we also have water running out the base of the snowbanks and forming a tiny river down the side of the road.

Last night when we turned out the lights the golf course was still mostly white; this morning it's half green.

And when we got back from church just 3 hours later, there was even less snow.

Take a closer look out there between the trees.

More snow gone

And yes, our crane snowstick has re-emerged, after about 2 months of being buried!

Out front you can see the water seeping out the front of the big dirty snowbanks.  And you can never get away from the big Canadian flags on our street!

Best of all a few Daffodil shoots that had been up an inch or too but buried underneath the snow are now visible, the first sign of spring flowers at our house.  And I saw a Robin the other day too.  Spring is here!